Congressional Election Metrics

If the US Congressional Election were held today, what would be the outcome? A striking question that one cannot answer with any given certainty nor without stating opinion is exactly how many seats would be lost or gained by the party in power. Fortunately, we have a statistic that can give us more scientific insight and can answer this question objectively.

Based on a 71% correlation between presidential approval rating and congressional seats lost by election, an econometric regression analysis has provided us the following:

If the election were held today, November 8, 2009, based on a 51.5% presidential approval rating the Democratic Party will LOOSE 24 +/- 15 (-39 to -9) seats considering a 95% confidence interval.

Reference:
"President/Congress Correlation Metric"
CA Analytics a division of
CA Evans Corporation of Delaware